Sports Saturday

Let this blog be a haven for Chicagoans looking to escape Blackhawk mania. Hockey has no place in the national conversation except for the Olympics.

Right now, there is nothing more important in the sports world or, barring a pesky little oil spill (can’t we clean that shit up yet?), the real world than the first place Cincinnati Reds. At the time of this entry’s writing (Friday morning) the Reds hold a one game lead over the Cards, meaning that no matter what, the Reds will still be in first place tomorrow. This weekend brings the foundering Astros into town, so hopefully the lead will hold at least until the Reds play the Cardinals at the end of the weekend. That series will end a streak of 20 games without a day off, finally giving the overtaxed bullpen a much-needed respite.

Even though the Reds have risen to first by beating some very bad teams (You know that when Roy Oswalt can’t beat the Reds Houston is playing poorly), there are a few reasons to be upbeat when considering the team’s potential for the rest of the year:

1) Starting pitching has been phenomenal and looks like it will continue to be. Cueto and Bailey have both sustained minor injuries, but nothing that should continue to cause problems throughout the season. Even better, unlike years past, if the Reds have an injury to a pitcher, there is a coterie of men in waiting who can make the jump to the Bigs, including this one guy named Chapman. Bronson is proving as able as ever; Aaron Harang is doing OK, and finally seems to be getting some run support; Cueto and Leake are both performing like BAMFs (but we should expect both to let off the gas a little bit as the season goes on, particularly Leake). Bailey is the wild card so far, but as said before, there are plenty of people in waiting if he goes haywire.

2) Scott Rolen. I thought it was a terrible move for the Reds to pick him up last year, and now I’m eating my words (or thoughts, rather, because I didn’t have a blog back then). He’s on pace to hit about 30 homers and has been batting a solid .280-.290 all year. Having him to hit behind Joey Votto has proven invaluable. It’s let Brandon Phillips move back to the 2-spot where he belongs. Oh, and by the way, can you say Clutch?

3) The Reds have been winning the type of game that they lost in years past. Asides from the 9th inning meltdown in Atlanta, the late innings have been good to Cincinnati. Something that I think is telling is that the last time
the Reds blew a 6-run lead in the 9th (April 27th, 2004 with the loss going to everyone’s favorite Rufio look-alike but least favorite closer, Danny Graves), it was the start of a 5-game skid. This year, the Reds were able to bounce back and win 5 of their next 7. They also seem to have snapped their club aversion to extra inning wins.

Now, all that said, there are also some very worrying aspects to this ball club.

1) The Reds’ wins have been coming in May, which continues to follow my adage: Bad in April, Good in May, OK in June, Abysmal in July. Couple that with the fact that the Reds are 9-11 against teams over .500 and you begin to see why there should be some worry. The boys take on some tough teams heading into the All-Star break, and I think we’ll know by then if they can really hang.

2) For all the depth the Reds have at pitching, there is relatively little of it for position players. If Scott Rolen, Joey Votto, or Brandon Phillips get hurt, that’s pretty much all she wrote. The outfield has a little give with Laynce Nix and Johnny Gomes both performing admirably, but let’s just hope the team can stay healthy for once – especially Rolen who is 35.

3) The Bullpen. Coco has been frighteningly spotty this year, only rarely getting the 1-2-3 ninth that he was designed to get. Masset and Herrera have also been giving up runs in spots where the team can’t afford it. The only guy who’s been an absolute Oak is Arthur Rhodes, who is ancient and has been over-performing like nobody’s business. But after those four guys, the bullpen gets pretty abysmal, so Dusty has been leaning on them pretty hard. I have a feeling that logging all the innings will catch up to them come August and September – why put in Coco with a four-run lead against Pittsburgh? Of course, it all has to look bad during this 20-game stretch when nobody is getting the rest they need.

But, for now, let’s enjoy the nice part of the Summer. It’s not too hot out and the Reds are in first goddamn place. They’ve looked good all year, and not “good for Cincinnati” but “major league good.” Aroldis Chapman is going to dominate when he gets here, and Joey Votto has the potential to be as consistent as Albert Pujols. If both those things happen, this team could contend not just this season, but for years to come.